Posted by Liz Adams on Sep 1, 2015 in Abstracts, Abstracts 2014
Antarctic Sea Ice Response in Ensemble CMIP5 Historical and Ozone Perturbation Simulations Abstract Antarctic sea-ice trends from three CMIP5 modelling systems are compared with observations. Several hypotheses advanced to explain the recent small positive trend in overall extent are investigated. In the CSIRO Mk3.6 system, area-weighted trends match the observations in some of the ensemble members. Whilst the CSIRO results with ozone forcing are more realistic, with...
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Posted by Liz Adams on Sep 1, 2015 in Abstracts, Abstracts 2014
Assessing the effects of declining aerosols in RCP4.5 Abstract All the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) include declining aerosol emissions during the 21st century, but the effects of these declines on climate projections have had little attention. We compare two projections for 2006−2100 using the CSIRO-Mk3.6 model. One (RCP45) follows the usual RCP4.5; the other (RCP45A2005) has identical forcing, except that anthropogenic aerosols are fixed at 2005 levels....
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Posted by Liz Adams on Sep 1, 2015 in Abstracts, Abstracts 2014
Predicting environmental drivers for prawn aquaculture production to aid improved farm management Abstract A wide range of aquaculture industries are exposed to environmental conditions and variability which can impact on production. Information about future climate conditions on a range of time scales can improve risk management, buffer production against unfavourable environmental conditions, and allow maximised production during opportune times. Seasonal forecasting,...
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Posted by Liz Adams on Sep 1, 2015 in Abstracts, Abstracts 2014
Assessment of the CMIP5 global climate model simulations of the western tropical Pacific climate system and comparison to CMIP3 Abstract A set of 27 global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble are assessed for their performance for the purpose of making future climate projection studies in the western tropical Pacific and differences to Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) are assessed. The CMIP5 models...
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Posted by Liz Adams on Sep 1, 2015 in Abstracts, Abstracts 2014
Coupled initialization in an ocean-atmosphere tropical cyclone prediction system Abstract A coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamical ensemble prediction system is used to study coupled initialization and bred cyclic modes in the case of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Yasi. Ocean initial perturbations are constructed to identify the fastestgrowing nonlinear modes in the ocean response to the TC. The ensemble provides a characterization ofhowinitial andevolving dynamical ocean perturbations...
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Posted by Liz Adams on Sep 1, 2015 in Abstracts, Abstracts 2014
Climate and competition in abundance trends in native and invasive Tasmanian gulls Abstract Climate and competition influence seabird population size yet are rarely considered simultaneously. Here, we consider the influence of climate on nominal abundance trends, and test for evidence of interspecific competition based on 31 yr of count data from 3 co-occurring gull species in southeastern Tasmania. The silver gull Chroicocephalus novaehollandiae and Pacific gull Larus...
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