Monitoring and Prediction of Modes of Coherent Tropical Variability

Real-time filtering of OLR data to monitor and predict the convective variations of the Madden-Julian oscillation and various convectively coupled equatorial waves, based on the "climatological" spectral peaks of a long record of satellite-observed data.

(Last updated with OLR data from:DD MNTH YEAR)

Antisymmetric Modes   Symmetric Modes
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Fig 1. Regions of wavenumber-frequency filtering for the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) signals of certain modes of coherent tropical variability. These modes are identified as spectral peaks (the shading) in a wavenumber-frequency spectrum analysis of a long record of satellite-observed OLR, a good proxy for deep tropical convection. Filtering is for the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO; blue), Kelvin wave (green), n = 1 equatorial Rossby (ER) wave (black), and mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) wave (brown). The so-called "convectively coupled equatorial waves" are defined to be in either the antisymmetric or symmetric components only, while the MJO is allowed to contain both components. For details, see Wheeler and Kiladis (1999, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences).

The full details of the real-time filtering technique and testing of its skill have been provided in Wheeler and Weickmann (2001, Monthly Weather Review).

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Created and maintained by Matthew Wheeler