Forecast
period
|
Pancho
-
Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP)
|
Aggregated
verification results for eTRaP
ETRaP forecasts were evaluated for eight Atlantic storms during the
2004 and 2005 seasons. The verification data were Stage IV radar-rain
gauge analysis over a 10° lat/lon domain centered on the best track
position. Both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts were evaluated.
The performance of quantitative precipitation forecasts from
eTRaP exceeded that of TRaP for both 6-hour and 24 hour rain
accumulations, as shown below.
6h forecasts
24h forecasts
sts
Verification of the eTRaP probability of precipitation forecasts showed
good reliability for the lower rainfall thresholds, but overconfidence
(probabilities were too great) for heavier rain thresholds. This means
that some calibration of probability forecasts will be required. (plots
to be added below)
Beth Ebert (e.ebert@bom.gov.au)
Centre for Australian Weather and
Climate Research (CAWCR), Bureau of Meteorology
27 March 2008
Disclaimer: This is
an experimental
web
site intended to facilitate the exchange of experimental Tropical
Rainfall Potential (TRaP) and Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential
(eTRaP) forecasts between product developers at NOAA SSD and BOM CAWCR.
Viewers of this page accept all risks and responsibility for losses,
damages, costs and other consequences resulting directly or indirectly
from using this site and any information or material available from it.
