A poor man's ensemble is a set of independent NWP model forecasts from several operational centres. The Bureau's experimental poor man's ensemble includes the LAPS and GASP models, plus the US, UKMO, and JMA models received over the GTS, ECMWF (low resolution) output by special arrangement, and CMC and DWD received via FTP. Two deterministic forecasts of quantitative precipitation amount are made, namely the simple ensemble mean (AVG) and the probability-matched mean (PM). The poor man's ensemble also makes forecasts of probability of precipitation for thresholds of 1, 5, 10, 15, 25, and 50 mm per day.
State and regional maps of Poor Man's Ensemble forecasts can be viewed from the experimental National Rainfall Forecasting Guidance page. The verification linked in the table below focuses on the deterministic forecasts. For verification of the probabilistic forecasts see the Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts page.
Current Forecasts: (going forward in time)
| Valid Date and Time | NWP Model QPFs | Deterministic QPFs | Probabilistic QPFs | Meteograms |
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