Summary verification of Poor Man's Ensemble (PME) precipitation forecasts

90 days to 00 UTC 20100318

Probabilistic verification of ensemble forecasts

Australia	Tropics Equatorward of 25S	Mid-latitudes Poleward of 25S
ROC	ROC	ROC	(description of this score)
Reliability diagram	Reliability diagram	Reliability diagram	(description of this score)
Relative value	Relative value	Relative value	(description of this score)
ROC area	ROC area	ROC area	(description of this score)
Brier skill score	Brier skill score	Brier skill score	(description of this score)
Ranked probability skill score	Ranked probability skill score	Ranked probability skill score	(description of this score)
Time series of scores	Time series of scores	Time series of scores	(description of these scores)

Deterministic verification of control, ensemble mean, probability-matched mean, and high resolution forecasts

Australia	Tropics Equatorward of 25S	Mid-latitudes Poleward of 25S
RMSE, BIAS, ETS	RMSE, BIAS, ETS	RMSE, BIAS, ETS	(description of these scores)

Additional verification of Poor Man's Ensemble forecasts can be accessed from the Poor Man's Ensemble web page.

For descriptions and definitions of verification methods and scores, click here. No rank histogram is computed for the Poor Man's Ensemble because the number of ensemble members is not constant.

Home to EPS Precipitation Verification main page