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Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting:
CHAPTER 8: NUMERICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS

8.1 INTRODUCTION

Because of the large diversity of spatial scales and the scope of the physical processes involved, the tropical cyclone prediction problem represents, in many respects, the ultimate test of tropical numerical weather prediction applications. The rapid increase in computer power in recent years has enabled numerical models to attain resolutions where small-scale systems such as tropical cyclones are resolved. These models are displaying real skill with motion prediction, and have the potential to handle formation. However, only a limited number of high resolution research models (Tuleya, 1988, for example), have attained resolutions where cyclone structure (including intensity) can be addressed.

Current research models and research programs indicate that numerical model forecasts of tropical cyclones will continue to improve. Improvements also will come from increasing ability to resolve fine-scale structure as computer power and memory continue to expand and become less expensive.

It is important that forecasters have an appreciation of the manner in which numerical models are constructed, their basic physics, and the constraints under which they operate. This chapter therefore commences with a brief overview of numerical models and their features, including methods of analysis and bogussing of tropical cyclones. We then describe current global and regional operational models. The information presented is valid as of 1993, but we emphasise that the details of all operational models are constantly changing. Readers requiring current information should consult the meteorological literature, or contact the relevant forecast centre directly. A detailed examination of the performance of track prediction models may be found in Elsberry (1993).

Contents Chapter 8.2