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Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting:
CHAPTER 6: OPERATIONAL STRATEGY

6.2 FORECAST OFFICE DESIGN

There appear to be three separate infrastructures which operate under the generic name of TCWC:

1. An office fully devoted to the issue of tropical cyclone warnings. The IWTC-II survey indicated around 8% of offices operated in this manner.
2. A cyclone forecasting area located adjacent to but separate from the main forecasting area; 16% of offices are included in this category.
3. The cyclone forecasting function is integrated into the office routine. The majority of countries fall into this organisational structure.

When it comes to planning the design of a forecasting office, there are two fundamental areas for consideration; one being the actual physical design of the TCWC, and the other being how to make the best use of staff resources. If meteorological agencies are planning to commence or upgrade their tropical cyclone forecasting services in future years, then this section may provide the basic guidance as to what should be required to achieve this.

6.2.1 Forecast Office Layout

Any consideration of the design of a TCWC must relate directly to the availability of space and equipment, commodities which vary considerably between all forecast offices. The principles suggested in this chapter are therefore necessarily general and are intended as guidance only.

Weather services should plan to have adequate physical space available to accommodate the tasks which need to be performed. There are problems in locating the TCWC in a room which is too small for the number of staff required to make it operate effectively. Inclusive in this are factors such as staff discomfort and frustration.

The TCWC should also be located so that there is as little outside distraction as possible for the forecasters. Personnel who are involved in extremely difficult situations do not need unnecessary interruptions.

Equipment should be located as close as possible to the forecaster. It is not efficient to have to physically move around the office (often repeatedly) to examine different types of incoming data. The data should be channelled towards the forecaster rather than be randomly distributed around the office. Some thought and planning in this area can greatly streamline forecasting procedures.

Lighting should be an important aspect of office design as it impacts on the area of occupational health and safety. Good lighting is essential for a forecasting office, particularly in areas used for data analysis (for example over synoptic charts). Areas of strong reflection or glare should be reduced or eliminated. Glossy satellite pictures and computer screens are often prone to these effects, and the resulting glare can cause eye strain. This can lead to a reduction in efficiency in the short term and health problems in the longer term.

Attention should also be paid to the provision of an area where forecasters can record warning messages for automated telephone dissemination without interruption or background noise. This could be a sound-proof booth or a room isolated from the rest of the forecasting area. A separate room for conducting media interviews would also be advantageous for some TCWCs (this will be discussed in 6.6), and this concept should at least be considered in office design.

The three different styles of TCWC will naturally have varying requirements with regard to office layout:

1. TCWC Incorporated Into the Main Forecasting Area: When sharing facilities in the area where normal forecasting duties are carried out, care should be taken to ensure the least disruption to either operational task, and of course, close liaison should be maintained between each operation to maximise consistency. An area within the forecasting area should be designated as the TCWC (even if only a temporary arrangement), and this should contain such facilities as necessary to carry out the basic cyclone forecasting task. Ideally this should include a tropical cyclone workstation and operational charts.
   

Other facilities would need to be shared between the two operations and this may include satellite imagery, radar imagery, forecast guidance material (for example, facsimile charts from other centres) and local analyses. The office should then be planned such that any common facilities are located as close as possible to both operations. Permutations of the placement of facilities within this basic design are numerous and left to the individual circumstances of the weather service;

2. Dedicated TCWC: In the case of an office which is fully dedicated to tropical cyclone forecasting, it is essential to have facilities arranged such that staff are in close proximity to their major forecasting tools. Certainly multi-tasking workstations can ensure that the forecaster has access to observational data (including satellite, radar and synoptic observations) and warning preparation facilities at his/her fingertips. Conventional synoptic charts are also important for most forecasters and should be located close by;
   
3. TCWC Adjacent To Main Forecasting Area: A TCWC located separate from but closely adjacent to the main forecasting area affords all weather service staff some measure of insulation from interruption and background noise, while still allowing an avenue for interaction to maintain forecast consistency.

The TCWC should preferably be equipped with all facilities so that it can operate quasi-independently, however, if some facilities need to be shared, the design of the office should ensure that the common equipment is located close to both operations.

An Eye to Future Design: It seems inevitable that workstation technology will dominate future planning of the layouts of a TCWC. Workstations capable of both displaying data and being used for warning preparation will most likely be the centre-piece of the new style offices. The advent of the workstation will also bring problems to the TCWC, which must be addressed from the outset. Any future office design should also include suitable ergonomic furniture to accommodate the introduction of workstations. Adjustable desks and chairs should be a major component of office furniture to try to eliminate any health problems resulting from continual use of computer terminals.

Noise from equipment should also be reduced to acceptable levels by the use of sound-absorbent materials, "silent" printers and the judicious placement of unavoidably noisy units to more unobtrusive places in the office.

The build-up of static electricity in the office environment can effect sensitive electronic equipment (not to mention the human discomfort experienced in being "zapped" by electrostatic charges), and thus consideration should be given to the use of anti-static materials in the TCWC.

6.2.2 Forecast Office Staffing

Meteorological agencies generally operate under stringent budget considerations and are staffed for the "average" weather situation only ("average" usually meaning "fine" weather conditions). Consequently, the extra workload associated with a tropical cyclone generally means that there is not enough staff to cope with the cyclone and also fully cover an office's routine obligations. Weather service staff usually have to be diverted from their normal duties to work in the TCWC.

Weather service managers and supervisors will be well aware of these sorts of problems and many often have to walk a fine line when deploying staff resources in tropical cyclone situations. In establishing the number of staff necessary to carry out tropical cyclone duties effectively, there are thus several points to be considered.

A TCWC should be manned on a 24 h basis once a tropical cyclone is considered to pose a significant threat to a community. The ideal situation would be for a TCWC to be manned around the clock for any tropical cyclone operating within its area of responsibility, however there is usually a need to compromise this in order to meet an agency's other commitments, within its level of staff resources. Care should also be taken to try to limit the other responsibilities of staff assigned to deal with a tropical cyclone situation.

The level of staffing should increase as the level of threat increases. Certainly there is a significant rise in workload as a tropical cyclone approaches an area and more people become aware of its presence. Staffing levels should comprise of a roster of at least four senior forecasters working around the clock, and being assisted by an equal number of support staff. All staff should be assigned clearly defined duties so that there is a minimum of confusion within the office routine during a tropical cyclone event.

There are large benefits to be gained from having tropical cyclone (or, in general, severe weather) specialist positions established within a TCWC. As well as being available to bolster forecasting staff numbers in cyclone events, cyclone specialists can fulfil a number of other roles which are central to the overall efficient running of a TCWC. These include applied research and techniques development work for the benefit of the TCWC, an involvement in public education campaigns, the establishment of close links with counter-disaster groups, and generally maintaining the TCWC at a high level of efficiency. At present, according to the IWTC-II survey, approximately 75% of countries affected by tropical cyclones do not have specialist positions devoted to the tropical cyclone problem.

Contents Chapter 6.3