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Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting:
CHAPTER 1: GLOBAL OVERVIEW


1.1 Introduction

Chapter 1 provides background information relevant to the more specific topics addressed in subsequent chapters. In keeping with the overall theme of the guide, emphasis is placed on the presentation of material in tabular or graphical format for ready reference. We begin with a discussion of the WMO global tropical cyclone forecasting concept, including the structure and goals of the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP), areas of forecast responsibility, tropical cyclone naming conventions, and descriptive terminology. A key issue here is to note the many procedural differences between forecast offices and oceanic basins.

Although the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Guam is not directly associated with WMO, its near-global mission is tacitly associated with the WMO forecasting system. Accordingly, JTWC's role in the global tropical cyclone forecasting system is included also. A complete guide to JTWC operations and systems may be found in Guard et al. (1992)

The chapter continues in Section 1.13 with a new global tropical cyclone climatology presented in a manner to enable direct comparisons from one basin to another. For this purpose, a new global tropical cyclone data set was developed. Various global and ocean basin charts are presented and used to illustrate forecasting problems in the various basins. Section 1.4 next addresses the philosophy of "forecast difficulty" and its usefulness in comparing global verification statistics and model performance. This section also contains a discussion of some of the major forecast problems. The chapter is concluded with a blank section for inclusion of regional climatologies by local forecast offices.


Contents Chapter 1.2



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