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Upgrade to the Global Forecasters Guide – Greg Holland

(sub chapter taken from Topic Chairman and Rapporteur reports of the Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-IV) Haikou, China. 21-30 April 1998 : Tropical Meteorology Research Programme Report Series.  Report No. 59. WMO/TD - No. 875)

4.8.1 Introduction

The Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting was published in 1993 on information gathered from the first two international workshops on tropical cyclones. The goal was to a usable operational manual that could improve the capacity of forecasters to discriminate and objectively judge the best forecast approach a) by contributing logical methods for proceeding through analysis and forecasting; b) by providing insights into forecasting approaches; and c) by clearly indicating the limitations of forecast techniques. The Guide was provided in a loose - leaf format for ease of use and to encourage insertion of local information and forecast guidelines.

The Guide contains nine chapters covering: 1. Global Overview (C. Neumann), 2. Tropical Cyclone Structure (R. Merrill), 3. Tropical Cyclone Motion (G. Holland), 4. The Habitation Layer (C. Jelesnianski), 5. Seasonal Forecasting (W. Gray), 6. Operational Strategy (G. Foley), 7. Warning Strategy (R. Southern), 8. Ready Reckoner (G. Holland), and 9. Bibliography. Each chapter was written by the author’s listed in brackets under the overall editorial direction of G Holland. Approximately 30 others contributed as direct contributors, technical reviewers or those providing a perspective from individual ocean basins.

Since completion, the Guide has attracted favourable comment from a wide range of sources, Including Tropical Cyclone Programme meetings in the various Regional Associations. It obviously fills a need and has a role in forecasting offices. However, even after a relatively short period of five years several of the sections are coming dated and are in need of revision. This brief rapporteurs report addresses the future of the Forecast Guide and suggests a change to an electronic medium. Future of the Guide will be debated during IWTC IV and decided at a meeting of a selected sub committee at the end of the workshop.

4.8.2 Next Edition of the Guide

The Guide is in a loose - leaf format to facilitate changes and additions. However, the reality is that the logistics of printing changes and distributing them to a, largely unknown, list of addresses effectively inhibits other than major structural changes.

We considered producing the first edition as a web page, but at that time Internet access by forecasting offices was still fairly limited. There is now widespread access to the Internet and we should consider producing the second edition of the Guide on the web. Advantages of a web edition are many, multi-media capacity and ease of update being just two. Local hard - copy also can to be made to provide ease of access in operational conditions. The disadvantages are that there is a substantial amount of work involved in both the web edition and in providing an ongoing maintenance.

It is recommended that consideration be given to producing the second edition of the Guide on the web.

Another significant advance that has occurred since publication of the Guide is the Systematic Approach developed at the Naval Post Graduate School. The workshop should review this approach and recommend on how it might be incorporated into the revised Guide. One way would be to completely restructure the Guide along the lines of the Systematic Approach. A second method would be to incorporate the Systematic Approach within the current structure of the Guide. This is recommended, as there are many more parts to the Guide than are currently covered by the Systematic Approach.

4.8.3 Chapter by Chapter Assessment

A brief assessment of each chapter is provided in this section. No attempt is made to consider ways in which the Systematic Approach may be incorporated.

• 4.8.3.1 Chapter 1: Global Overview.

  This chapter contains an excellent coverage of the various regions of responsibility, naming conventions, problems with different measuring systems and units, observational practices, and an extensive climatology of tropical cyclones around the globe. Whilst there are some additional climatological characteristics that could be added, and there may be some minor changes to the observation practices, this chapter requires very little revision.

  4.8.3.2 Chapter 2: Tropical Cyclone Structure.

  In preparing this chapter, Bob Merrill provided a combination of known information and attempts to provide methods for interpretation and classification of poorly documented conditions, such as extratropical transformation. We seek the views of the forecasting community on the usefulness and degree of application of Bob’s recommended methods of analysing and predicting in particular outer structure, extra tropical transition and rainfall. Significant revision of these sections would seem to be in order.

  4.8.3.3 Chapter 3: Tropical Cyclone Motion

  Considering the contents of this chapter in comparison to that on structure clearly reflects the greater sophistication of forecasting techniques for motion. Some of the details require updating, particularly with regard to new or revised methods that have been produced recently, and the views provided by the Systematic Approach. However, the overall chapter is in reasonably good shape.

  4.8.3.4 Chapter 4: the Habitation Layer

  This chapter by Chester Jelesnianski focuses on the surface conditions in tropical cyclones and in particular on the processes occurring near landfall. As such it may be prudent to hold substantial revision until the World Weather Research Programme initiative on tropical cyclone landfall has matured.

  4.8.3.5Chapter five: Seasonal Forecasting

  Potential approaches to forecasting seasonal activity off tropical cyclones are summarised in this chapter. There is a strong concentration on the North Atlantic, arising from the extensive work done there by Bill Gray and his collaborators. Since the chapter was written there has been a significant increase in development of longer-range forecast techniques. The chapter would benefit from a revision to include these new techniques and to describe the accuracy of the more established ones.

  4.8.3.6 Chapter 6: Operational Strategy

  Gary Foley contributed this chapter to provide an overall indication of good forecast office practice on a range of procedures from pre-season preparations through interactions with the media and general operational strategy. The forecast community at the workshop should provide advice on the usefulness of this chapter and any proposed revisions.

  4.8.3.7 Chapter 7: Warning Strategies

  This chapter attempted to provide strategies for optimising the preparation, issue, understanding and response to tropical cyclone warnings. It was derived substantially from the extensive experience of Bob Southern. Since that time there has been a major increase in the investigation of social and economic aspects of tropical cyclones, including: the Australian tropical cyclone coastal impacts project, the U S weather research programme hurricane landfall project, and the session on social and economic aspects at this workshop. These aspects should be incorporated into the revised chapter.

  4.8.3.8 Chapter 8: Numerical Track Prediction Models.

  This chapter attempted to provide basic information on numerical model techniques together with an overview of available operational models. The operational modelling section, in particular, is now badly dated and in need of revision. There is also the question of whether a separate chapter on modelling should exist or whether the relevant components should be incorporated into the other chapters. For example track prediction modelling could appear in the revised chapter 3.

  4.8.3.9 Chapter 9: Ready Reckoner

  The idea here was to provide a range of useful information in a readily accessible form. Comments from a number of people indicate that this is one of the more useful parts of the Guide and should be retained. A range of additional information that has become available should also be incorporated. For example the wealth of information available from the frequently asked questions Internet site maintained by Chris Landsea.

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