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BMRC is now part of CAWCR: The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research.
For more information on The Centre please go to http://www.cawcr.gov.au

Experimental El Niño Predictions

Using a Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

Contact: Neville Smith

Background

A coupled global comprehensive ocean-atmosphere model for the prediction of tropical Pacific ocean temperatures has been developed within the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre in Melbourne Australia. Warmer than normal temperatures in tropical Pacific are usually referred to as El Nino conditions while cooler than normal conditions are referred to as La Nina. The indices NINO3 and NINO4 are used to measure these temperature deviations. Within Australia, El Nino conditions are normally associated with drought conditions in eastern Australia particularly in inland Queensland and NSW. The reverse applies during La Nina.

Current research on this forecast model is being undertaken jointly by BMRC and CSIRO Marine Research with the assistance of a grant from the Land and Water Rural Research Development Cooperation (LWRRDC; now Land & Water Australia) within the Climate Variability and Agriculture Program (CVAP).

Wang et al (2000) contains a preliminary Report on the details of the model. Wang et al (2001; to appear in MWR) contains a more recent scientific analysis of the results.

Current Forecasts

NINO3 and NINO4 forecasts
Forecast SST Anomalies
SKILL OF FORECASTS
SCIENTIFIC DOCUMENTATION AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
Contacts: Oscar Alves and Guomin Wang

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Experimental results described in these pages are from research systems developed in BMRC and are not part of the Bureau of Meteorology's operational products & services.

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