Experimental intra-seasonal products from the POAMA System

Real-time Forecasts

NOTE: All intra-seasonal forecasts are experimental and not to be used in any way.

Their skill has not yet been properly assessed

Forecasts consists of ensemble means of 5 forecasts consisting of forecast starting on selected date and forecasts starting on the previous four days

There are two types of plots:

Longitude/time plots shows plot of individual ensemble members and the ensemble mean as a longitude/time plot averaged between 10S and 10N

Horizontal plots shows the ensemble mean anomaly for the tropics, one plot for each lead time.

Either choose a date or last (in all boxes) for latest. Presently forecasts are available from 6th October 2003. We are working to include all forecasts since POAMA went operational in Oct 2002. The forecasts are updated daily.

The climatology used for the anomalies is based on the period 1987-2001. It is a combination of model hind-casts and observed climatology. The observed climatology is given greatest weight at the start of the forecast and this weight decreases with time.

Work is underway to assess the skill of these forecasts and also to include other variables such as surface wind, precipitation, SST, etc.

 

For further information: email the POAMA group

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