Coupled models versus statistical methods

Under construction !

 

Statistical forecasting

History

What is a statistical method (need for long observational record)

SOI phases

PM - oceans to farms

Hibrid approach - ocean to farms

Coupled models

Representation of real world dynamics - mechanics can be validated against real world eg

did it capture the correct mechanisms for the 97 El Nino

Does not require long past history

May differentiate different situations - eg why impacts of different EL Ninos differ

Predict uncertainty - by using ensembles

Problems with coupled models

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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