The Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Programme was a major international
effort by the World Climate Research Program during the decade 1985-95
to develop new approaches to predicting the El Nino Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) phenomenon. One of the most promising approaches to come out
of the Programme was numerical modeling of the coupled dynamics of the
ocean and the atmosphere. Since Australia is strongly affected by ENSO,
it seemed natural for the Bureau of Meteorology Research Center and
CSIRO Marine Research (formerly the Division of Oceanography) to team
up to adapt this new technology to the specific needs of Australia.
Early on we recognized that while ENSO is a phenomenon of the Pacific
Ocean, the new approach is an effective way to also take the impact
of other oceans on Australia into account.
Ocean data is essential to make the new technology work. The partnership
began by jointly developing observing systems on a regional scale in
the surrounding oceans, and integrated our contribution with international
observational activities to achieve global coverage. Ultimately the
partnership was formalized in the Joint Australian Facility for Ocean
Observing Systems (JAFOOS).
Development of a prototype coupled model began in about 1995. In 1996
the Climate Variability in Agriculture Program (formerly the National
Climate Variability Program) provided enhanced funding to develop an
ocean model that represents important regional features such as Indonesian
through-flow and intense tidal mixing in the seas north of Australia.
In 1999, CVAP, BMRC and CSIRO jointly undertook the development of a
coupled model that would run operationally at the Bureau of Meteorology
and provide predictions to the Seasonal Climate Outlook.