Bureau of Meteorology
Operational Products

POAMA 3/ACCESS system Development

Purpose/objectives:

  • Improve forecasting of El Nino
  • Provide ensemble set of hind-casts
  • Operational rainfall prediction system
  • Operational intra-seasonal prediction system
  • Use the new ACCESS coupled model

Timescale

  • 2008-11

Ocean model

  • AusCOM-1, the new Australian Climate Ocean Model being develop by ACCESS
  • Improvements will be sought to improve the simulation of key modes of variability such as ENSO and Indian Ocean variability

Ocean/atmosphere/land data assimilation

  • Coupled data assimilation
  • Ocean component using an extension of the POAMA-2 system (Ensemble Kalman Filter)
  • Atmosphere/land component using nudging scheme developed for POAMA-1.5
  • Covariances and cross covariances deduced from perturbation ensemble of the coupled model
  • Introduce altimeter data

Observation processing system

  • Enhanced processing of real-time observations
  • Possibility of using UKMO ENACT QC system

Atmosphere/land model

  • ACCESS atmospheric model (UKMO atmospheric model)
  • Resolution to be decided (at least as high as POAMA-2)
  • New physics options ?
  • New ACCESS land surface model
  • Improvements will be sought to improve the model's ENSO mode, Indian Ocean variability and the representation of varibility of Australian/Asian rainfall associated with ENSO, SAM, Monsoons, MJO etc
  • One of the key features that needs inproving is the details of the ENSO mode and how it projects onto Australian Climate (e.g. variability of the Indo/Pacific region and the South Pacific Convergence Zone)

Coupler

  • ACCESS coupled: present plans are for OASIS

Ice Model

  • ACCESS CICE model

Land surface

  • ACCESS land surface model (CABLE in present plans)

Hind-casts

  • 5-10 member ensemble per month over the period 1981-2008. Method of generating ensembles to be investigated as part of ACCESS

Real-time forecast system

  • Similar to POAMA2 including a separate intra-seasonal forecast suite

Products/output

  • Provide range of products for downscaling and user appliations, contribution to international projects SMIP and to the APCC. Need to ensure output is consistent with international standards - e.g. COORDS compliant.

 

 

 

For further information: email the POAMA group


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