POAMA/ACCESS Development plans - POAMA-2system

 

Purpose/objectives:

• Improve forecasting of El Nino
• Provide comprehensive ensemble set of hind-casts
• Rainfall products
• Intra-seasonal products

Timescale

• Operational trials end 2007, large hind-cast set 2007/8

Ocean model

• ACOM2 (some retuning to reduce noise in the East Pacific)

Ocean data assimilation

• PEODAS (POAMA Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation System)- new ACCESS data assimilation system, ensemble multi-variate ocean data assimilation system based on an extension of the BODAS systems that uses a time evolving ensemble for the covariance calculation
• Temperature and salinity in-situ data

Atmosphere model

• Use new version BAM3
• Increase resolution T95L17 (subject to satisfactory performance)

Atmospheric/land initialisation

• New atmosphere/land surface nudging scheme

Coupler

• OASIS 2

Land surface

• Bucket model

Hind-casts

• 5-10 member ensemble per month over the period 1981-2007

Real-time forecast system

• As POAMA-1, option to increase ensemble size to around 50.
• Intra-seasonal forecast system (may be separate from seasonal)

Products/output

• Provide range of products for downscaling and user appliations, contribution to international projects COPES and to the APCC. Need to ensure output is consistent with international standards - e.g. COORDS compliant. Work on downscaling/bridging as part of SEACI.
• Suite of intra-seasonal (weekly out to 6 weeks) forecasts

 

 

For further information: email the POAMA group

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