Quantitative precipitation forecasts from the operational models are verified on a daily basis using the operational real-time analysis of rain gauge measurements. Click on any of the forecasts in the table to see an example.
The operational analysis, which is on a 0.25-degree latitude/longitude grid, is spatially averaged onto the model grid for verification (except for the 5 km QPFs, where the surface analysis is interpolated onto the model grid). All gridpoints over the sea and in land areas where the data density is too small to render the analysis reliable (i.e., the white patches in the right hand map) are eliminated before computing the verification statistics. The statistics are accumulated in order to perform monthly and seasonal verifications.
A variety of verification plots and tables, including those for additional operational models not originating at the Bureau, can be seen on the RAINVAL page.
For more information on the verification method:
Ebert, E.E. and J.L. McBride, 1997: Methods for verifying quantitative precipitation forecasts: Application to the BMRC LAPS model 24-hour precipitation forecasts. BMRC Techniques Development Report No. 2, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, 87 pp.
For more information on the gauge rainfall analysis:
Mills, G.A., G. Weymouth, D. Jones, E.E. Ebert, M. Manton, J. Lorkin and J. Kelly, 1997: A national objective daily rainfall analysis system. BMRC Techniques Development Report No. 1, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, 30 pp.
