Publications List

16 September 2008

Jeff Kepert

 

Journal articles (refereed)

 

2008

 

Cutler, N.J., J.D. Kepert, H.R. Outhred, I.F. MacGill and M.J. Kay, 2008: Characterizing future large changes in aggregated wind power using numerical weather prediction spatial fields. In press, Wind Energy.

 

Kepert, J.D., 2008: Covariance localisation and balance in an ensemble Kalman filter. Submitted to Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.. Manuscript

 

May, P.T., J.D. Kepert and T.D. Keenan, 2008: Polarimetric radar observations of the persistently asymmetric structure of Tropical Cyclone Ingrid. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 616 – 630.

 

Powell, M.D., E. Uhlhorn and J.D. Kepert, 2008: Estimating maximum surface winds from hurricane reconnaissance measurements. In press, Weather and Forecasting. Manuscript

 

Schwendike, J. and J.D. Kepert, 2008: The Boundary Layer Winds in Hurricanes Danielle (1998) and Isabel (2003). Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3168-3192.

 

Vincent, C.L. and J.D. Kepert, 2008: Using kinetic energy spectra from NWP to forecast wind variability. BMRC Res. Lett., 8, 27 – 34.

 

Vincent, C.L, W.P. Bourke, J.D. Kepert, M. Chattopadhay, Y. Ma, P.J. Steinle and C.I.W. Tingwell, 2008: Verification of a High-Resolution Mesoscale NWP System”, In press, Aust. Meteor. Mag. Manuscript.

 

2007

 

Louey-Gung, J., C.L. Vincent, J.D. Kepert and M.J. Reeder, 2007: Improved severe thunderstorm forecast performance with mesoscale assimilation – a case study. BMRC Research Letters, 7, 15 – 20.

 

Schulz, E.W., J.D. Kepert, and D.J.M. Greenslade, 2007: An Assessment of Marine Surface Winds from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Numerical Weather Prediction Systems. Weather and Forecasting, 22, 609 – 632.

 

2006

 

Kepert, J.D., 2006: The impact of recent events on our understanding of tropical cyclones and climate change. BMRC Research Letters, 4, 2 – 10.

 

Kepert, J.D., 2006: Observed boundary-layer wind structure and balance in the hurricane core. Part I: Hurricane Georges. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2169 – 2193.

 

Kepert, J.D., 2006: Observed boundary-layer wind structure and balance in the hurricane core. Part II: Hurricane Mitch. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2194 – 2211.

 

Kepert, J.D., 2006: Discussion on “Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Database”. J. Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering, 132, 501-502.

 

Greenslade, D.J.M., E.W. Schulz, J.D. Kepert and G.R. Warren, 2006: The impact of the assimilation of scatterometer winds on surface wind and wave forecasts. J. Atmos. Ocean Sci., 10, 261-287.

 

Tory, K. J., M. T. Montgomery, N. E. Davidson and J. D. Kepert, 2006: Prediction and diagnosis of tropical cyclone formation in an NWP system. Part II: A diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Chris formation. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 3091 – 3113.

 

2005

 

Kepert, J.D., 2005: Objective analysis of tropical cyclone location and motion from high density observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 2406 - 2421.

 

Kepert, J.D., C.I.W. Tingwell, K.J. Tory, P.J. Steinle and J. Paevere, 2005: Scatterometer assimilation in the Bureau of Meteorology numerical weather prediction systems. BMRC Research Letters, 3, 9 - 23.

 

2004

 

Kepert, J.D., 2004: On ensemble representation of the observations-error covariance in the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Ocean Dynamics, 54, 561-569. DOI: 10.1007/s10236‑004‑0104‑9.

 

2001

 

Kepert, J.D., 2001: The dynamics of boundary layer jets within the tropical cyclone core. Part I: Linear Theory. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2469-2484.

 

Kepert, J.D. and Y. Wang, 2001: The dynamics of boundary layer jets within the tropical cyclone core. Part II: Nonlinear enhancement. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2485-2501.

 

Wang, Y., J.D. Kepert and G.J. Holland, 2001: The effect of sea spray evaporation on tropical cyclone boundary layer structure and intensity. Mon. Weather. Rev. 129, 2481-2500.

 

Earlier

 

Kepert, J.D., 1996: Comments on "The Temperature of Evaporating Sea Spray Droplets". J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 1634-1641.

 

Fairall, C.W., J.D. Kepert and G.J. Holland, 1994: The effect of sea spray on surface energy transports over the ocean. The Global Atmosphere and Ocean System, 2, 121-142.

 

Kepert, J.D. and R.K Smith, 1992: A simple model of the Australian West Coast Trough, Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 2042-2055.

 

Journal articles (non-refereed)

 

Kepert, J.D., 2007: Maths@work in meteorology. Aust. Math. Soc. Gazette, 34, 150-155.

Book Chapters

 

Kepert, J.D., 2008: Tropical cyclone structure and dynamics. In Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones, 2nd Edition. In preparation. Manuscript.

 

Kepert, J.D., C.W. Fairall and J-W Bao, 1999: Modelling the interaction between the atmospheric boundary layer and evaporating sea spray droplets. In Air-Sea Exchange - Physics, Chemistry and Dynamics, ed Gary Geernaert, pp 363-410. Kluwer, 578 pp.

 

Theses

 

Kepert, J.D., 2002: The Wind-Field Structure of the Tropical Cyclone Boundary-Layer. PhD thesis, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. 350 pp. Preamble Chapter1 Chapter2 Chapter3 Chapter4 Chapter5 Chapter6

 

Kepert, J.D., 1989: The Australian West Coast Trough. In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, Monash University.

 

Kepert, J.D., 1983: Enumeration of groups of p-power order. In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Science (Honours), University of Western Australia.

 

Research Reports

 

Kepert, J.D., D.J.M. Greenslade and G. D. Hess, 2005: Assessing and improving the marine surface winds in the Bureau of Meteorology Numerical Weather Prediction systems. BMRC Research Report 105, Available from Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre. 61pp.

 

WMO Statements

 

McBride, John, Johnny Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Julian Heming, Greg Holland, Jeff  Kepert, Thomas Knutson, Chris Landsea and Hugh Willoughby, 2005: Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change. Submitted to CAS‑XIV under Agenda Item 7.3 by Dr G. B. Love, Permanent Representative for Australia. Prepared by the WMO/CAS Tropical Meteorology Research Program, Steering Committee for Project TC‑2: Scientific Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Tropical Cyclones. Available from http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/jmb/CAS‑statement.pdf.

 

Book Reviews

 

Kepert, J.D., 1997: Review of “The Weather and Climate of Australia and New Zealand” by Andrew Sturman and Nigel Tapper. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2252-2255.

 

Conference Proceedings and Extended Abstracts

 

Kepert, J.D., 2008: Interpreting dropsonde measurements of turbulence in the tropical cyclone boundary layer. Extended abstracts, 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. American Meteorological Society, Orlando, FL, U.S.A., 28 April – 2 May.

 

Kepert, J.D., 2006: Localisation and balance in an Ensemble Kalman Filter. Proceedings of the 7th International Workshop on Adjoint Applications in Dynamic Meteorology. Obergurgl, Austria,8 – 13 October. Innsbruck University Press.

 

Kepert, J.D., X. Sun and P.J. Steinle, 2006: Atmospheric data assimilation using the Ensemble Kalman Filter at BMRC. Extended abstracts, 18th BMRC Modelling Workshop: The Australian Community Climate Earth System Simulator (ACCESS)- Challenges & Opportunities. BMRC, Melbourne, Australia. Nov 28 – Dec 1.

 

Davidson, N.; Steinle, P.; Kepert, J.; Ebert, E., 2005: Initialisation for mesoscale prediction. BMRC Research Report, 111, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre pp.103-106.

 

Kepert, J.D., 2005: Localisation, Balance and Choice of Analysis Variable in an Ensemble Kalman Filter. Proceedings, 4th World Meteorological Organization Symposium on Assimilation of Observations for Meteorology and Oceanography, Prague, Czeck Republic, 18 to 22 April.

 

Powell, M.D., J.D. Kepert, A. Boissonade and P.J. Vickery, 2004: Uncertainty in hurricane winds: what do new measurements and simulations tell us about Hurricane Andrew. Extended abstracts, 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Amer. Meteorol. Soc., Miami, Florida, 3 - 7 May 2004, 522-523.

 

Davidson, N.E., Dare, R., Tory, K.J., Puri, K., Steinle, P, Kepert, J.D, Paterson, L., Montgomery, M., Butler, C., 2004:  Prediction and Diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Behaviour in the Australian Region. In: International Conference on Storms : Storms Science to Disaster Mitigation, incorporating 11th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society and 25th Annual Conference of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand pp. 126‑127.

 

Kepert, J.D., 2004: Determining near-surface winds in tropical cyclones. In: International Conference on Storms : Storms Science to Disaster Mitigation, incorporating 11th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society and 25th Annual Conference of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand pp. 212‑213.

 

Warren, G., D.A. Greenslade, J.D. Kepert and E. Schulz, 2004: Effect of wind forcing on bias in wave model forecasts. 8th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting. North Shore, Hawaii, Nov 14-19.

 

Kepert, J.D. 2004: Models and observations of tropical cyclone boundary-layer winds. BMRC Research Report No 104: The Past, Present and Future of Numerical Modelling: extended abstracts of presentations at the sixteenth annual BMRC Modelling Workshop 6-9 December 2004. Melbourne, Australia. pp 77-82.

 

Kepert, J.D., 2002: The impact of landfall on tropical cyclone boundary layer winds. Extended abstracts 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Amer. Meteor. Soc., San Diego, California, 29 April - 3 May, 2002, 335-336. 

 

Kepert, J.D., 2002: An analysis of some tropical cyclone boundary layer wind observations. Extended abstracts 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Amer. Meteor. Soc., San Diego, California, 29 April - 3 May, 2002, 615-616. 

 

Kepert, J.D., 2002: Modelling the tropical cyclone boundary layer wind-field at landfall. Extended abstracts, 14th BMRC Modelling Workshop: Modelling and Predicting Extreme Events, Melbourne, Australia, 11-13 November, 81-84.

 

Kepert, J.D., 2002: Coastal and inland wind structure changes. Research Rapporteurs Reports, Fifth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, World Meteorological Organisation, Cairns, Australia, 2-12 December. Section 2.4, 11pp.

 

Kepert, J.D. and Y. Wang, 2000: Boundary layer structure and dynamics beneath a translating tropical cyclone. Presented at 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Fort Lauderdale, Florida, 29 May - 2 June, 2000.

 

Kepert, J.D., 2000: Observations of the boundary layer of tropical cyclone Vance. Extended abstracts 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Fort Lauderdale, Florida, 29 May - 2 June, 2000, 173-174.

 

Wang, Y., J.D. Kepert. and G.J. Holland, 2000: On the effect of sea spray evaporation on tropical cyclone boundary layer structure and intensity. Extended abstracts 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Fort Lauderdale, Florida, 29 May - 2 June, 2000, J19-20.

 

Kepert, J.D., and C.W. Fairall, 1999: Modelling the interaction between the atmospheric boundary layer and evaporating sea spray droplets. Extended Abstracts, 13th Conference on Boundary Layers and Turbulence, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Dallas, Texas, Jan 10 - 15 1999, 248-251.

 

Kepert, J.D. and G.J. Holland, 1999: The North West Cape tropical cyclone boundary layer observatory. Extended Abstracts, Third Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Dallas, Texas, Jan 10 - 15 1999.

 

Kepert, J.D. and C.W. Fairall, 1999: On the parameterisation of spray fluxes for tropical cyclones. Extended abstracts, 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Dallas, Texas, Jan 10 - 15 1999, 145-148.

 

Kepert, J.D. and Y. Wang, 1999: Low level jets within the tropical cyclone boundary layer. Extended abstracts, 23rd Conference on Hurricanse and Tropical Meteorology,Amer. Meteor. Soc., Dallas, Texas, Jan 10 - 15 1999, 1023-1028.

 

Wang, Y., J.D. Kepert, and G.J. Holland, 1999: The impact of sea spray evaporation on tropical cyclone intensification. Extended abstracts, 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Dallas, Texas, Jan 10 - 15 1999, 26-29.

 

Kepert, J.D., P.T. May and C.W. Fairall, 1997: Profiler observations of tropical cyclone boundary layers. Presented at 22nd International Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Fort Collins, Colorado, 24-28 April 1997.

 

Kepert, J.D. and G.J. Holland, 1997: The North West Cape tropical cyclone boundary layer monitoring station. Presented at 22nd International Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Fort Collins, Colorado, 24-28 April 1997.

 

Wang, Y., J.D. Kepert and G.J. Holland, 1997: On the boundary layer structure under a translating tropical cyclone. Presented at 22nd International Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Fort Collins, Colorado, 24-28 April 1997.

 

Kepert, J.D.  And C.W. Fairall, 1997: Modelling the impact of sea spray evaporation on the atmospheric boundary layer. Presented at The 1997 joint Assembly of the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences and International Association for Physical Sciences of the Oceans, Melbourne, Australia, 1-9 July 1997.

 

Kepert, J.D., G.J.Holland, V. Kondratiev and G.R. Foley, 1995: Tower measurements of the boundary layer of a landfalling tropical cyclone. Presented at 21st International Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, Florida, 24-28 April, 1995.

 

Kepert, J.D., 1995: An efficient algorithm for calculating the temperature of an evaporating sea spray droplet. Presented at The 7th BMRC Modelling Workshop: Numerical Methods, Melbourne, Australia, 4-6 December.

 

Kepert, J.D., 1995: An analysis of observed large air-sea temperature differences in tropical cyclones. Presented at TOGA 95, Melbourne, Australia, 2-7 April.

 

Kepert, J.D., 1994: An analysis of observed large air-sea temperature differences in tropical cyclones. Presented at The Second International Conference on Air-Sea Interaction and Meteorology of the Coastal Zone, Lisbon, Portugal, September 22-27, 1994.

 

Kepert, J.D., 1993: The impact of sea spray on atmospheric boundary layer structure and dynamics under tropical cyclone conditions. In Modelling Severe Weather: Papers Presented at the Fourth BMRC Modelling Workshop, Melbourne, Australia, 26-29 October 1992.

 

Kepert, J.D., 1993: Research Rapporteur Report on Oceanography and Air-Sea Interaction. Invited paper for The Third International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, Huatulco, Mexico, 22 November - 1 December, 1993.

 

Kepert, J.D., 1993: The impact of sea spray evaporation on the tropical cyclone boundary layer. In Parameterisation of Physical Processes: Papers presented at the Fifth BMRC Modelling Workshop, Melbourne, Australia, 15-18 November, 1993.

 

Rikus, L.J. and J.D. Kepert, 1992: Validating the cloud diagnosis scheme in the BMRC GCM. International Radiation Symposium, Tallinn, Estonia, August 1992.

 

Kepert, J.D. and C.W. Fairall, 1993: The impact of sea spray on the tropical cyclone boundary layer. In Extended Abstracts, 4th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, Hobart, Australia, March 1993.

Hopkins, L.J., G.J Holland, J.D. Kepert and L.M Leslie, 1993: East coast cyclones: An isentropic potential vorticity perspective. In Extended Abstracts, 4th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, Hobart, Australia, March 1993.

 

Rikus, L.J. and J.D. Kepert, 1991: Validating the cloud diagnosis scheme in the BMRC GCM. Modelling Weather and Climate: Papers Presented at the Third BMRC Modelling Workshop, Melbourne, Australia, November 1992. p 51 - 54.

 

Conference Abstracts (not otherwise mentioned above)

 

Fairall, C.W., J.D. Kepert and G.J. Holland, 1993: The effect of sea spray on surface energy transports over the ocean. Presented at The Third Air-Sea Interface Symposium, Marseille, France, June 24 - 30.

 

Kepert, J.D. and G.J. Holland, 1993: The impact of sea spray on tropical cyclones. Presented at The 6th International Assembly of the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Yokohama, Japan, July 11 - 23.

 

Fairall, C.W., J.D. Kepert and G.J. Holland, 1993: Parameterising the effect of sea spray on the surface energy balance under high wind conditions. Presented at The 6th International Assembly of the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Yokohama, Japan, July 11 - 23.

 

Kepert, J.D., 1994: Potential vorticity inversion by nudging. Presented at The First National AMOS Conference (Incorporating the 5th Air-Sea Interaction Conference), Adelaide, Australia, February 14-16.

 

Kepert, J.D. and C.W. Fairall, 1994: The impact of sea spray evaporation on tropical cyclone structure and dynamics. Presented at The First National AMOS Conference (Incorporating the 5th Air-Sea Interaction Conference), Adelaide, Australia, February 14-16.

 

Kepert, J.D. and C.W. Fairall, 1995: Modelling the evaporation and dispersion of sea spray in the marine boundary layer. Presented at The Second National AMOS Conference (Incorporating the 5th Air-Sea Interaction Conference), Lorne, Australia, February 14-16.

 

Kepert, J.D., 1995: The North West Cape Tower Observing Site. Presented at Tropical Cyclones Coastal Impacts Project - Second Progress Workshop, Brisbane, Australia, 8-9 March.

 

Kepert, J.D., 1995: An approach to wind-field estimation for a land falling cyclone. Presented at Tropical Cyclones Coastal Impacts Project - Second Progress Workshop, Brisbane, Australia, 8-9 March.

 

Kepert, J.D., P.T. May and C.W. Fairall, 1996: Profiler observations of the boundary layer of tropical cyclone Jacob. Presented at Tropical Cyclone Coastal Impacts Program: Third Workshop, Brisbane, Australia, 9-10 May.

 

Wang, Y., J.D. Kepert and G.J. Holland, 1997: On the boundary layer structure under a translating tropical cyclone. Presented at 22nd International Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Fort Collins, Colorado, 24-28 April 1997.

 

Kepert, J.D., 2004: Issues in the design and implementation of an Ensemble Kalman Filter. Presented at 6th International Workshop on Adjoint Applications in Meteorology, Acquafreddo di Maratea, Italy, May 24-28.

 

Kepert, J.D., 2005: Localisation, Balance and Choice of Analysis Variable in an Ensemble Kalman Filter. Presented at 4th World Meteorological Organization Symposium on Assimilation of Observations for Meteorology and Oceanography, Prague, Czeck Republic, 18 to 22 April.