Climate Dynamics

ISSN: 0930-7575 (printed version)
ISSN: 1432-0894 (electronic version)

Abstract Volume 15 Issue 5 (1999) pp 319-324

Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia

S. Power (1) (2), T. Casey (1), C. Folland (2), A. Colman (2), V. Mehta (3)

(1) Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia
(2) Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, Berkshire, UK
(3) Joint Center for Earth System Science, University of Maryland/NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, MD, USA

Received: 21 October 1998 / Accepted: 27 November 1998

Abstract The success of an ENSO-based statistical rainfall prediction scheme and the influence of ENSO on Australia are shown to vary in association with a coherent, inter-decadal oscillation in surface temperature over the Pacific Ocean. When this Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) raises temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, there is no robust relationship between year-to-year Australian climate variations and ENSO. When the IPO lowers temperature in the same region, on the other hand, year-to-year ENSO variability is closely associated with year-to-year variability in rainfall, surface temperature, river flow and the domestic wheat crop yield. The contrast in ENSO's influence between the two phases of the IPO is quite remarkable. This highlights exciting new avenues for obtaining improved climate predictions.

(1) The Cooperative Research Centre for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
(2) Present address: National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289K Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia E-mail: S. Power@bom.gov.au

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