4.  Forecast
These experimental results from research systems developed in BMRC.These research results highlight some of our current work and  should be of interest to other researchers. They are not part of the Bureau of Meteorology's operational products and services.

    Forecast for Dili rainfall for the 3 months August-October 2002 and for the 6 months August 2002 - January 2003

    The forecast scheme is uses discriminant analysis with rotated Empirical Orthogonal Functions of Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean sea surface tempertaures as predictors, following the methodology of  Drosdwosky and Chambers, Jnl of Climate 2001.  The current forecast uses sea surface temperature data up to the end of  June 2002

                                                3 months August-October        6 months August - January
Long-term median rainfall                    25 mm                                        355 mm
Expected for this season                       0 mm                                            357mm
Probability of higherst tercile                24.63                                            13.76
Probability of middle tercile                  22.26                                            60.07
Probability of lowest tercile                   53.11                                            26.18

Probability of above median                  27.92                                            52.53
Probability of below median                   72.06                                            47.47