From
Jeff Callaghan
Date: Thu, 03 Jan 2002 17:19:28
+1000
From: Jeff Callaghan <j.callaghan@bom.gov.au>
To: tropical-storms@tstorms.org
Cc: synoptic_discussion@bom.gov.au
Subject: [Tropical-storms]
Gulf of Carpentaria TC
The buoy 52627 reported the
following winds (10 min mean) and MSLP.
1451 UTC 3/1/02 260/43 knots
985.5 hPa
1636 UTC 3/1/02 270/39 knots
986.1 hPa
1813 UTC 3/1/02 280/35 knots
985.1 hPa
Jeff
Forgot to add lat long of
buoy
15.0S 139.0E
From John McBride
Thanks mate.... Has anyone
else got anything to say on Bernie... any
interesting analysis or
questions on this one?
JMcB
From John McBride
Just a couple of quick ones on TC Bernie
a) Movement. It is interesting that it is near stationary. Looking at the 850-200 Deep-layer mean chart, there is no steering or background flow to speak of, except for the circulation of the cyclone itself. This is consistent with the fact that the system is quasi-stationary.
B) What will happen to it after it makes landfall?
I have often wondered what is the difference between the systems that make landfall at low latitudes and rapidly decay, and those that retain their integrity as a monsoon depression, drift around for a while, and then reform when they go back over tropical waters. Last year I watched a few of these re-forming systems and speculated that the ones that reform may be those that stay in the monsoon trough.
Looking at the current monsoon trough as seen in the current 850 hPa analysis and in the 200-850 shear analysis , it (the monsoon trough) extends out eastwards from Bernie; but not towards the west. Thus, one speculation would be that if it makes landfall and drifts eastward towards Cape-York, it is likely to reform. Whereas if it drift westward or directly south, it is likely to fall apart..... Just speculation at this stage; but it will be interesting to see what happens.
John McB
(Friday afternoon...
I am putting the time in as the majordomo distribution system seems to
be down at the moment)
