As a follow-up to my earlier note, I came across the following article in the online Indonesian newspaper Jakarta Post, dated Feb 2 2004:

In the article, you'll read an interview with Dr Paulus Winarso of BMG describing the fact that  heavy monsoon rains over Java have been delayed and so did not occur during  January.

As discussed in my earlier note, this can be attributed to the influence of the MJO which brought about low-level easterly anomalies and suppressed conditions over Indonesia during January.   As Paulus writes, once this easterly phase has passed,  the peak of the wet season will presimably occur in  coming weeks.

Stronger storms to hit Jakarta soon

                  Bambang Nurbianto, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta: Feb 2 2004

                  The stormy weather that hit Jakarta on Friday is still
                  likely to occur again in the near future because the
                  peak of the rainy season, which had been forecast for
                  early January, will occur in mid-February.

                  Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMG) senior
                  expert, Paulus Agus Winarso, said on Saturday that
                  the peak would occur in February instead, while
                  rainfall could reach up to 100 millimeters per day.

                  "The peak of the rainy season was to occur at the end
                  of January and therefore extra heavy rains are very
                  possible in the next two weeks," he told The Jakarta
                  Post.

                  BMG had previously forecast 26 consecutive days of
                  rain for January.

                  According to Paulus, the delay in the peak of the rainy
                  season will cause the heaviest rains to fall in the next
                  two weeks.

                  Therefore, he advised Jakartans to remain alert over
                  the possibility of major floods because the level of
                  rainfall would be similar to conditions in early 2002.

                  Massive flooding paralyzed the capital two years ago
                  resulting in the deaths of at least 30 people and
                  forcing more than 300,000 others to take refuge.

                  The violent storm that occurred last Friday was only
                  the beginning of the rainy season's peak, said Paulus,
                  as indicated by tropical storm Linda in southern
                  Indonesian waters.

                  "The storm that hit Jakarta and its surrounding areas
                  yesterday (Friday) was extraordinary. The storm
                  caused heavy rains combined with strong winds."

                  Paulus named poor technology and drastic global
                  environmental problems as two reasons for the
                  inaccurate weather forecast.

                  The BMG does not have high-tech equipment for
                  monitoring changes in the weather that would be
                  required to get the most accurate weather forecast.

                  He pointed out that the worldwide environmental
                  damage, which has caused global warming, also
                  made the work of weather forecasting more difficult.

                  "The occurrence of new diseases like bird flu can't be
                  separated from the global environmental problems. It
                  also affects a weather forecaster's work."

                  Paulus gave a tip for people to recognize the signs of
                  impending heavy rain.

                  "If the weather is extremely hot and then there are
                  black clouds, prepare yourselves for heavy rains, and
                  possible floods if you live in flood-prone areas."