Gedday all,

I wandered up to the VRO chart discussion thius morning and saw something interesting, hence I'm back "on the air".... I've even revived my web-page..... so the charts I refer to under the link on my page to "synoptic discussion/today's date).

Looking at the current progs for tonight and tomorrow, you'll see LAPS, GASP and all others are forming a cold-front in the mass of cold air to the southeast of Melbourne.... see the example progs on my page.

However, looking at the current satellite images, also on my web-page, there is currently no sign at all of a front in the pool of open-cellular cold air.  So... the question is, are we actually going to see frontogenesis  occuring  to our south over the next 12-24 hours?  if so, it will be interesting.... almost as interesting as the events at the MCG tomorrow aftwernoon....

The rainfall progs (e.g the loops on the NMOC chart discussion page don't actually form a frontal rain-band,.... the "front that is supposed to form is more of a sharp trough in the isobars so we should be due for a wind change line, rather than a stratiform rain-band.... still, as I said, there doesn't seem to be any obvious sign of it in the cloud patterns.
 

cheers

John mcB

LAPS Prog for tonight:

Current GASP prog

Current GMS image

current IR loop :  IR loop

Harald Richter

The 02:25 UTC IR image (see below) and WV loops show a circulation centre near 50S 135E moving ENE.  It's plausible that this vortex would set up the appropriate deformation field for frotongenesis to its N.    Enhanced convection (colder cloud tops) are currently present N of the circulation centre.