Date: Wed, 5 Jun 2002 17:08:29 -0700 (PDT)
From: P Flatau <pflatau@yahoo.com>
To: tropical-storms@tstorms.org
Cc: pflatau@ucsd.edu, mflatau@ucsd.edu
Subject: [Tropical-storms] this year Indian monsoon onset

You may recall John McBride's and J. Chan emails about 2 pairs of twin cyclones in IO and MJO moving towards
westPac around May 10.  There was discussion about South China Monsoon onset at that time.  Here is a
fascinating follow up on this year's early westerly bursts and related Indian monsoon onset controversy
including politics, social drama, and science.

In mid May of 2002 Associated Press and other news organizations reported that "The death from a heat
wave that has gripped southeastern India rose to 1,030 Wednesday as reports trickled in from remote rural
villages. Most of the dead were older people unable to bear temperatures that reached 122 degrees. Officials
were still adding up the toll in Andhra Pradesh state, but it was already the highest one-week death count on
record for any Indian heat wave."

Going back a bit, in November 2001 we (Flatau, M., Flatau, P., and Rudnick) published a paper on the
dynamics of double monsoon onsets (JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2001, V14(N21):4130-4146) which predicted that early
TC twins in IO and MJO branch propagating towards westPac, combined with high SST in the BoB  may lead
to the delay of the monsoon onset in India (and heat wave in between).   Dr P. V. Joseph published relevant
paper (Journal of Climate, V7(N1):81-105) in 1994.

On May 25 Dr P. V. Joseph, on the basis of his research, predicted that "temporal evolution of deep
convection as observed by satellite over the north Indian and northwest Pacific oceans so far in May 2002
indicate possibility for a two week delay in monsoon onset over India (Kerala)."

After that Flataus were contacted by Mr Gopal N. Raj, the science correspondent who wrote a story for "The
Hindu" about possible Indian monsoon delay in 2002 which was published on May 28.

However, on the night of 28 May Cochin and Trivandrum had heavy thundershowers and India Meteorological
Department (IMD) declared the onset of monsoon over south Kerala on 29 May 2002 and extended it over north
Kerala on 30 May.

One may think that this is another story about missed
forecast!
"On 30 May I (Joseph) sent an e-mail to the Director General IMD that as an experienced tropical
meteorologist (forecaster, researcher and teacher), I totally disagree with the IMD declaration of monsoon
onset and suggested that he refers to the decades of synoptic experience of Indian meteorologists
summarized by Y.P.Rao in his classic book on monsoon (1976) pages 45 and 49, para 3.19." - commented Dr
Joseph in his second email. Maria Flatau supported Dr Joseph forecast and said  "I really think dr Joseph
was justified in issuing his forecast." - in her reply to Mr Raj.
 

And, to crown this all, on Wednesday 5 Jun 2002 we got the following email:

"Dr. Joseph and you (Dr Flatau) seem to be turning out right about the delay in monsoon onset. I (Mr Raj)
have a feeling that the India Meteorology Department got provoked into declaring the onset on monsoon onset
on May 29 as a result of Joseph publicly declaring that it would be delayed. In India, even a rumour of
the monsoon being affected can have an immediate impact on the grain markets. Just the thought of that
happening scares the government."

Maria Flatau
NRL Monterey