Gordon Jackson

Hi all

A bit out of the Australian region, but attached are TC-LAPS's forecasts
for TC FUNG-WONG and FENGSHEN over the next 72h.  FUNG-WONG track is quite
interesting being influenced by FENGSHEN into a possible Fujiwhara loop.
(Note the bumps at the end of FENGSHEN's track is due to hitting the
boundary of the domain at +66h.)

Detailed charts at...
http://comms.ho.bom.gov.au/tc_laps/index72.html
 

Noel Davidson
Date: Fri, 26 Jul 2002 12:24:47 +1000 (EST)
From: Noel Davidson <ned@BoM.GOV.AU>
To: synoptic_discussion@BoM.GOV.AU
 

Hello Folks,

A couple of days ago Gordon Jackson showed an interesting real-time forecast from
operational TC-LAPS of a binary interaction between two storms (Fujiwhara effect)
over the northwest Pacific. (Some would know that there has also been discussion of this by the
tropical-storms email group).

Attached are 4 gifs showing 0-60 hour verification of track and intensity
for both storms (FUNG-WONG and FENGSHEN).

The skill of the track forecasts are quite remarkable, and even the intensity
forecasts are rather encouraging. I doubt very much whether EC, UK, US would
have achieved the skill in both track AND intensity obtained from our LAPS-based system.

To be fair, I also mention that besides these good forecasts, we have
had our share of busts (due to obs data and analysis deficiencies, and limitations
in the representations of physical processes). It is a difficult, time-consuming and often
thankless exercise to address these issues. It is a credit to the very few dedicated
to these tasks (special mention to Puri, Mills, Steinle, Harris, Tingwell - hope I
haven't left anyone out) that any progress is being made at all.

Noel Davidson