Jeff Callaghan

John
This may be of interest to the tropical storm group with the attachment on
your web page
Jeff
 

There is some interest here in Brisbane among the forecasters in the role
of thermal advection in heavy rain associated with tropical cyclones. Dave
Bernard (todays Senior forecaster) pointed out Holton's scale analyses for
tropical cyclones (P296 1972 edition)  where he found that radial advection
of temperature cannot be neglected in the thermodynamic energy equation for
tropical cyclones.

I have enclosed the NCEP re-analyses charts and these show (like the EC)
warm advection west of the centre of Chataan between 0000UTC 1 and 2 July
and the heaviest rain evident from both SSMI and TRMM data was around
1200UTC 1 July 2002 and the heavy rain was west of the MSL centre.  By 0000
UTC 3 July the circulation became more vertically stacked and there is
little warm air advection evident at 700hPa and by this time the system
began intensifying again.