Its well known that when a researcher makes a forecast it always turns out to
be wrong:

We haven't had a decent monsoon burst, with deep westerlies, since some time
in early December (from memory).  But... prospects are looking good right now.

**   On Boy Wonder's realtime OLR monitoring, the MJO that has been out
     over the Indian Ocean should be upon us in a few days time.

**   The jet stream that was sitting over South Eastern Australia has
     gradually weakened and died over the past week.

So...conditions are right.  When will the monsoon outbreak occur?  Well...
back in medieval times (Monthly Weather Review, March 1983), Davidson,
McAvaney and I noted that monsoon onset occurred at the end of a period of
ridging in the Bight and buildup of easterlies across southern/central
Australia, much as is forecast on the current GASP prog to occur during this
coming Saturday/Sunday
 

so.... how about the start of a widespread monsoon burst over northen
Australia, this coming Sunday morning: about 00Z?

JMcB

Noel Davidson
G'day john and others,

Miles Lawrence (I almost typed Davis) - hurricane forecaster
from NHC - once said " NEVER MAKE A FORECAST YOU DON'T HAVE TO ".

Even though we all understand the sentiments of his comment,
John has ignored his advice and I (foolishly) am about to as well.
[Sorry I didn't respond earlier - I went to the golf yesterday]

The circulation looks very favourable for re-activation of the monsoon.
I particularly like the recent development of the deep low near 60S, 110E, and
the intensification of the ridge. This should precede the development
of the monsoon trough. The NHEM trades seem quite interesting too.
The upper levels also look quite nice with
the development of trough-ridge-trough systems over the Indian
Ocean. We haven't yet seen an acceleration of the easterlies
around Darwin longitudes, but we must be patient.

Perhaps a more interesting question is whether, or importantly
where, a TD/TC will form out of this lot?  My suggestion/forecast(??)
is near 12.5S, 125E.

ND
 

Andrew Tupper

Perhaps it's time somebody set up a little Java-based cyclone tipping board
for each developing system?
I reckon 14S 119S - well into Perth's area :-)*

>  more interesting question is whether, or importantly
>where, a TD/TC will form out of this lot?  My suggestion/forecast(??)
>is near 12.5S, 125E.

* Remember - the 'no smiley' policy is still only in draft form.....
 

From: Andrew Tupper
To: synoptic_discussion@bom.gov.au
Subject: Re: [synoptic_discussion] monsoon (again)

At 08:59 1/02/2002, I wrote:
>Perhaps it's time somebody set up a little Java-based cyclone tipping
>board for each developing system?
>I reckon 14S 119S - well into Perth's area :-)*

make that 119E.

Actually, the EC, US, and UK and JMA models all develop a system in that
area and take it south towards the Pilbara.  GASP doesn't; it may be right
of course, but it's a point of interest.

Andrew Tupper