Jeff Callaghan

Latest EC 72 and 96 hr forecasts are interesting and reminiscent of the
notorious New Years Day cyclone of 1963.
In that situation a 1003 hPa low east of Mackay developed into a 980 hPa
cyclone on the Sunshine Coast in 18 hours.
The rapid intensification occurred as it moved under a 500hpa low and sharp
200 hPa trough northwest of Brisbane.
The EC 500 and 200 patterns bear some similarities and the MSL low
intensifies as it moves under the 500 low with an intense gradient over the
Qld sub-tropical coast.

Another scenario (eg UK)is that the trough is stronger and steers the low
down into the Tasman.

Jeff