From Jeff Callaghan
We have been talking to fire authorities over the last few days re the
situation in SEQ this coming Sat.
The EC has been forecasting 850 conditions of 26degreesC 25% RH and 20 to
30 knot winds.
The authorities are nervous about warnings as they have several danger
spots one being Fraser Island.
 From past experience as soon as we issue a warning out come the arsonists
(especially in school holidays).
Does this happen in the more fire prone south.
Jeff

From Bill Wright

Hello Jeff,

        There is a most intriguing recent article on this subject by a Mr
Fabian Crowe, published in Jan 2000, from the National Academies Forum. In
this article, the case is made that the resultant publicity associated with
periods of high fire danger, and/or the occurrence of fires, might "provide
the trigger for some people who have a disposition towards lighting fires to
light them (during high fire danger periods)". The article quotes several
instances of recent major fires, e.g., the 1994 fires in NSW and January
1997 in Victoria, in support of his argument.

The full reference for the article is: "Fire! The Australian experience"
(Proc from the National Academies Forum seminar at the University of
Adelaide, SA 30 Sep - 1 Oct 1999), 2000. pp45-51

All of which raises a bit of a quandary for fire authorities - imagine the
outcry if a major fire occurred on a day without a fire weather warning.

Regards

Bill Wright

From Tony Bannister

Jeff,
It is a real double-edged sword issuing a fore weather warning or Total Fire
Ban.  It is telling all normal people to take care and it is telling
pyromaniacs that it will be a day when any fire lit will be very hard to
control.  The Meteorology Act says that we will warn the public of extreme
bushfire weather so we must, unless you want to change the Act.  The fire
agencies in Victoria have worked alot with the media here to downplay the
emotion leading up to the day (eg resist footage of extreme fire conditions,
raging fires etc), using the emotive stuff before the season starts to
reinforce the message of preparedness. Good luck for Saturday Jeff.

Cheers
Tony Bannister
Senior Meteorologist, Severe Weather
Victorian Regional Office

From Rob Webb

Hi Jeff

>From what I can gather, this is a pretty common occurrence. The way the NSW
Rural Fire Service seems to have got around it during the latest outbreak is
to promote awareness in the community that there are people out there who
might do this and get them to report anything suspicious. They feel it is
important to make sure there are no preventable ignitions as well as get the
general public keeping an eye on the area around them. As you'd expect in
NSW the anti-arson sentiment in the press is quite visible but I suppose
this is easy when houses are burning.

Rgds

Rob

NSW Severe Weather

From Tony Bannister

Hello all,
I just got to Bill's email.  Fabian Crowe is ex-Department of Natural Resources
and Environment here in Victoria and he is an Australian (if not world) expert
in the peculiar workings of the arsonist's mind.  It was his work that was used
in the discussions with the Victorian media.

From Russell Stringer

Hi Jeff et al,

Community action in response to our Fire Weather Warnings is a subject
having considerable scope for careful thought and analysis (and
improvement?). The negative side is the possible additional trigger to
arsonists; the positive side is the enhanced preparedness/response to fire
events.

The expected community action, and community education designed to foster
this, is different from State/Territory to State/Territory and is driven by
fire agencies and local needs. In Victoria the fire weather warning advises
"people living in areas at risk of fire to activate their bush fire plan"
and conveys any Total Fire Ban that is in place; in South Australia the
warning IS the Total Fire Ban; in Tas the warning carries advice that fires
may be "difficult to control" or "difficult and dangerous to control" and
also "that timber harvesters must take hourly weather readings and cease
operations if they measure a Very High Fire Danger Index", it also conveys
any Total Fire Ban that is in place; in NSW it conveys any Total Fire Ban
that is in place; in ACT it conveys any Total Fire Ban that is in place; in
WA it simply advises the areas in extreme danger (fire bans are imposed at
a lower threshold); in NT it advises "ALL POSSIBLE CAUTION SHOULD BE
OBSERVED." plus conveys any Fire Ban that is in place.

So here's the challenge: do we need to think more about what we expect the
community to do in response to our warnings?

Cheers, Russell