We have a good Oz monsoon situation right now, as evidenced by the widespread rainfall and cold OLR across our longitudes.  There seems to be no doubt this particular monsoon burst is related to the MJO as we have been wathching the MJO burst out in the Indian Ocean for several weeks now.

  The convection seemed to take a long time for it to move eastwards over our region; so I asked the Boy Wonder if he could pull out his forecast of the OLR as of two week as ago and compare it with the current.

  He has done so; and the two images are up on my webpage under today’s date  MJO.gif.

The two images are for the last 6 months Hovmoller of OLR anomalies, with the MJOmode contoured, and including a forecast projection of the MJO mode for the next 14 days.  The right hand one is the same image, as from his webpage back on 20 January.  I have lined them up so you can compare what happened with what was forecast:

He didn't do too badly; But he's a young bloke... has a lot to learn... has a lot of errors to make in life........