Mark lander (To tropical storms list)

TC group,

    Yet another TC is brewing in the western North Pacific in the eastern
part of the basin.  In the region south of 20 N and east of 160 E, TC
genesis is strongly related to El Nino.  During El Nino years there are
far more TCs that form in this area than during non-El Nino and La Nina
years.  Attached is the latest pic of what should soon be the next named
TC in the western North Pacific, and a chart of the genesis locations of
TCs in the El Nino year of 1997 vs the genesis locations of TCs in the
post El Nino year of 1998.  The genesis location of a TC is that point in
the JTWC best track archive that the TC is listed to have reached 25 kts.
With respect to an eastward shift in TC genesis, 2002 is shaping up to be
a typical El Nino year out here.

    Regards,  Mark Lander

Jason Dunian (NOAA)
It's interesting looking at the CIMSS 850 vort loop for this system:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-
time/westpac/movies/wgmsvor/wgmsvorjava.html

There seems to be an anticyclonic surge that pushes up from the south
early on 19 Aug that appears to jump start that area of convection.  You
can see it in the 700-850 mb mean flow field as well:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-
time/westpac/movies/wgmsdlm1/wgmsdlm1java.html

Regards,

Jason