I have been looking at the
significant weather summaries that Ted
williams and Andrew Tupper
have pointed out as being on the web. They are
teriffic... There is a goldmine
of information there. I have a couple of comments:
a) the information about
flooding is really intersting. In recent years I
have become aware of my
ignorance concerning catchment areas, flood
forecasting, climatogy of
major flood probles, etc in Australia. We spend
a career in the Bureau,
and having common tools, common background (e.g
the Met Course) and reading
common literature ( Monthly Weather Review,
Jnl of Climate, Aust Met
mag), we have a fair idea of what one another do.
However, the flood forecasting
is carried out by engineers who use some
type of models that I at
least don't even know the names of.... So,
despite the general interchange
of ideas that goes in in this place, the
hydrology is treated as
"secret engineer's business". perhaps this is
just my ignorance; but...
engineers be warned... I want to know whats
going on in your world.
b) As Noel Davidson once
pointed out on this discussion list, it is much,
much easier to grab charts,
satellite pictures, radar images, soundings
off the real-time system
while an event is happening than it is to
retrieve the images later.
Also, if we all look at it while it is
happening, we can discuss
it, theorise about it, and build up conceptual
models of important synoptic
and climate influences.
Hence, this is a plea
to whoever compiles the sig wx bulletins in each
state, let us know,
via this discussion, when the event is actually
happening.
cheers
John mcB
John
Nairn
Hi,
Just back from leave.
Thought you'd like to buy into a FSEP module on
this topic. Chris
Ryan is supervising the development of a 'forecaster
coach' module called MENTOR.
This concept is to have each forecast shift
fill in a checklist which
documents: the wx anticipated, Possible
Mesoscale patterns,
possible hazardous weather conditions, possible
problems for the day (having
trouble with the implementation of this
one), perceived model confidence,
level of dispersion in Model Guidence
,Perceived difficulty of
today's forecast, and Subjective analysis.
The information gathered
is meant to be collated in a format which can be
retrieved by an operational
forecaster, encountering a similar situation
in the future.
The concept is raw, and development
early. It would be interesting to
have a research Meteorologist
approach Chris, to become involved in the
development of this FSEP
module. It is aimed at gleaning information from
the operational shift's
expectations for the day, rather than the events
that unfold. Possibly
an elaboration could be developed which captures
the events encountered,
and offers the two sets of data as coaching info
to the forecaster?
Either way, the information
would be very useful for this forum. Both as a
'wakeup' to the forecaster's
expectations (often too busy to send off an
elaborate email), and as
a data base.
Cheers
John