16 April 2002:  Significant weather events continued

I have been looking at the significant weather summaries that Ted
williams and Andrew Tupper have pointed out as being on the web.  They are
teriffic... There is a goldmine of information there. I have a couple of comments:

a) the information about flooding is really intersting.  In recent years I
have become aware of my ignorance concerning catchment areas, flood
forecasting, climatogy of major flood probles, etc in Australia.  We spend
a career in the Bureau, and having common tools, common background (e.g
the Met Course) and reading common literature ( Monthly Weather Review,
Jnl of Climate, Aust Met mag), we have a fair idea of what one another do.
However, the flood forecasting is carried out by engineers who use some
type of models that I at least don't even know the names of.... So,
despite the general interchange of ideas that goes in in this place, the
hydrology is treated as "secret engineer's business".  perhaps this is
just my ignorance; but... engineers be warned... I want to know whats
going on in your world.
 

b) As Noel Davidson once pointed out on this discussion list, it is much,
much easier to grab charts, satellite pictures, radar images, soundings
off the real-time system while an event is happening than it is to
retrieve the images later.  Also, if we all look at it while it is
happening, we can discuss it, theorise about it, and build up conceptual
models of important synoptic and climate influences.
Hence, this is a  plea to whoever compiles the sig wx bulletins in each
state, let us know,  via this discussion, when the event is actually
happening.

cheers

John mcB

John Nairn
Hi,
Just back from leave.  Thought you'd like to buy into a FSEP module on
this topic.  Chris Ryan is supervising the development of a 'forecaster
coach' module called MENTOR.  This concept is to have each forecast shift
fill in a checklist which documents: the wx anticipated, Possible
Mesoscale  patterns, possible hazardous weather conditions, possible
problems for the day (having trouble with the implementation of this
one), perceived model confidence, level of dispersion in Model Guidence
,Perceived difficulty of today's forecast, and Subjective analysis.
The information gathered is meant to be collated in a format which can be
retrieved by an operational forecaster, encountering a similar situation
in the future.

The concept is raw, and development early.  It would be interesting to
have a research Meteorologist approach Chris, to become involved in the
development of this FSEP module. It is aimed at gleaning information from
the operational shift's expectations for the day, rather than the events
that unfold.  Possibly an elaboration could be developed which captures
the events encountered, and offers the two sets of data as coaching info
to the forecaster?
Either way, the information would be very useful for this forum. Both as a
'wakeup' to the forecaster's expectations (often too busy to send off an
elaborate email), and as a data base.

Cheers
John