Geoff Garden

Date: Wed, 10 Apr 2002 10:20:59 +0930
From: Geoffrey Garden <g.garden@BoM.GOV.AU>
To: j.mcbride@BoM.GOV.AU
Subject: Timor Sea developing TC

Updated Darwin TC Outlook reasoning, and 00Z gale warning for your info...

>IDD10620
>
>UPDATED
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Northern Territory Region
>Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
>
>UPDATED TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK PROGNOSTIC REASONING
>- For Meteorologist Use Only -
>
>Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
>at 0626 CST Wednesday 10 April 2002
>
>I. ANALYSIS
>A deepening low 1000 hPa is located in the far northern Timor Sea around 8.5S
>128.0E, moving southwest about 8 knots. Position and movement trend based
>on IR images - system may be sheared with LLCC further northeast. System
>organisation has improved - a CDO has formed overnight, with peripheral banding features.
>Dvorak MET=2.5, PAT=3.0, FT=2.5. Qscat pass at 0922Z indicates circulation
>extends to 150 nm radius, with limited useful data near system centre. There
>appears to be some NW inflow into the low, which is located under a divergent
>upper-level flow to the north of the upper-level ridge.
>
>II. PROGNOSIS
>If the low maintains its southwest movement over the Timor Sea parallel to the
>southern coast of Timor, it is moving into a low shear environment, with high
>cyclone development potential. If the system is sheared, the LLCC may be
>affected by interaction with Timor as it may be north of the CDO feature,
>limiting the low's development potential.  Most global models forecast west
>southwest movement over Timor with little intensification, however 12Z
>runs may not have captured improved organisation and SW movement. Will maintain a
>conservative approach, with a forecast of SW movement and a continuation of
>current development trend - gale warning issued at 0500 CST for TC development
>within 12-24 hours.
>
>III. TC OUTLOOK FORECAST
>Tuesday: Moderate.
>Wednesday: High.
>Thursday: High.
>
>DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

Geoff Garden
Date: Wed, 10 Apr 2002 12:37:52 +0930
From: Geoffrey Garden <g.garden@BoM.GOV.AU>
To: j.mcbride@BoM.GOV.AU
Subject: Darwin High Seas Weather Warning TC 10/4/02

JMcB: We think we have a small minimal TC...

>Date: Wed, 10 Apr 2002 11:22:50 +0930
>From: Aifs Operational Manager <aifsop@Bom.Gov.Au>
>To: warn_sevwx@barra.nt.BoM.GOV.AU
>Subject: BOM: High Seas Weather Warning TC
>
>IDD20130
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Northern Territory Region
>Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
>
>40:0:1:24:09S127E999:11:00
>SECURITE
>
>HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING
>
>HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
>Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
>at 0130 UTC 10 APRIL 2002
>
>PLEASE BE AWARE
>Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
>and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
>
>GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA
>
>SITUATION
>At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone BONNIE 995 hPa estimated within 30 nautical miles
>of 9.3 S 126.8 E moving west southwest at 12 knots.
>
>AREA AFFECTED
>Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
>
>FORECAST
>Sustained winds to 35 knots near centre, expected to increase to 40 knots
>in 24 hours.
>Winds 25/35 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre with very rough seas
>and a developing swell.
>1200 UTC 10 April:   10.5 S 124.8 E 995 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre.
>0000 UTC 11 April:    11.0 S 122.5 E 992 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre.
>
>REMARKS
>Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
>
>DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre