Peer Reviewed Publications

 

 

On-going (not published yet)

 

(pls. contact me if you want the latest status of these manuscripts or if you would like to see an early draft)

[1]     A.J. Frost, S.P. Charles, R. Mehrotra, G. Fu, B. Timbal, K.C. Nguyen and R.E. Chandler. 2009: “A comparison of multi-site daily rainfall downscaling techniques under Australian conditions”, (in preparation)

[2]     F. Chiew, D. Kirono, D. Kent, A. Frost, S. Charles, B. Timbal and K. Nguyen, 2010: “Comparison of runoff modelled using rainfall from different downscaling methods for historical and future climates”, Water Resources Research, (in preparation)

[3]     B. Timbal, M. Wheeler and P. Hope. 2009: "Possible causes of recent declines in rainfall in the southwest and southeast of Australia", Clim. Res.., (in preparation)

[4]     Q. Luo, B. Timbal and A. Kathuria, 2009: “Performance of climate indices under Future Climate Change”, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, (submitted)

[5]     B. Timbal. 2009: “Review of the Garnaut Climate Change final report”, Meteorological Application Journal, (in press)

[6]     P. Hope, B. Timbal and R. Fawcett. 2009: "Associations between rainfall variability in the southwest and southeast of Australia and their evolution through time", Int. J. of Clim. (in press)

[7]     A. Hasson, G. Mills, B. Timbal and K. Walsh, 2008: “Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme fire weather events over southeastern Australia”, Clim. Res., (in press)

 

Chapter in books

 

[8]     B. Timbal, N. Nicholls, W. Cai, K. Hennessy and P. Hope. 2007: “Chapter 3: Causes of past climate change”, in CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia, 148 pp, www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au

[9]     I. Watterson, P. Whetton, A. Moise, B. Timbal, S. Power, J. Arblaster and K. McInnes. 2007: “Chapter 5: Regional climate change projections”, in CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia, 148 pp, www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au

 

Article

 

[10] R. Kounkou, G. Mills and B. Timbal. 2009: "A reanalysis climatology of cool-season tornado environments over southern Australia". Int. J. of Clim., DOI: 10.1002/joc.1856

[11]  B. Timbal, E. Fernandez and Z. Li. 2009: “Generalization of a statistical downscaling model to provide local climate change projections for Australia”, Environmental Modelling and Software, 24, 341-358

[12]  B. Timbal, P. Hope and S. Charles. 2008: “Evaluating the consistency between statistically downscaled and global dynamical model climate change projections”, J. of Climate, 21(22), 6052-6059.

[13]  C. Rakich, N. Holbrook and B. Timbal. 2008: “A pressure gradient metric capturing planetary-scale influence on eastern Australian rainfall”. Geo. Res. Let, 35, L08713, doi:10.1029/2007GL03297

[14] B. Timbal and D. Jones. 2008: "Future projections of winter rainfall in Southeast Australia using a statistical downscaling technique". Climatic Change,  86, 165-187

[15]  B. Murphy and B. Timbal. 2007: "A review of recent climate variability and climate change in southeastern Australia". Int. J. of Clim, 28(7), 859-879

[16]  B. Timbal and J. Arblaster. 2006: "Land cover change as an additional forcing to explain the rainfall decline in the South West of Australia". Geo. Res. Let., 33, L07717, doi:10.1029/2005GL025361

[17]  B. Timbal, J. Arblaster and S. Power. 2006: "Attribution of the late 20th century rainfall decline in South-West Australia". J. of Climate, 19(10), 2046-2062 

[18]  B. Timbal. 2004: "South West Australia past and future rainfall trends", Cli. Res., 26(3), 233-249

[19]  B. Timbal, A. Dufour and B.J. McAvaney. 2003: "An estimate of climate change for Western France using a statistical downscaling technique", Climate Dyn., 17, 947-963

[20]  B. Timbal, S. Power, R. Colman, J. Viviand and S. Lirola. 2002: "Does soil moisture influence climate variability and predictability over Australia?", Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc.

[21]  B. Timbal, S. Power, R. Colman, J. Viviand and S. Lirola. 2002: " Does soil moisture influence climate variability and predictability over Australia?", J. Climate, 15, 1230-1238

[22]  B. Timbal and B.J. McAvaney. 2001: "An Analogue based method to downscale surface air temperature: Application for Australia", Climate Dyn. , 17, 947-963

[23]  B. Timbal and A. Henderson-Sellers. 1998: "Intercomparison of land-surface parameterizations coupled to a limited area forecast model" Global Planet. Change, 19, 247-260

[24]  J. Polcher, M.-A. Gaertner, A. Hahmann, B. McAvaney, J.-F. Mahfouf, J. Noilhan, T. Phillips, A. Pitman, A. Schlosser, J.-P. Schulz, B. Timbal, D. Verseghy and P. Viterbo and Y. Xue. 1998: "A proposal for a general interface between land-surface schemes and general circulation models" Global Planet. Change, 19, 261-276

[25]  J.-F. Royer, F. Chauvin, B. Timbal, P. Araspin and D. Grimal. 1998: "A GCM study of the impact of greenhouse gas increase on the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones" Clim. Change, 38, 307-343

[26]  B. Timbal, J.-F. Mahfouf, J.-F. Royer, U. Cubasch and J.M. Murphy. 1997: "Comparison between doubled CO2 time slice and coupled experiments" J. Climate, 10, 1463-1469

[27]  B. Timbal, A.N. Hahmann, A.J. Pitman, W. Qu, A. Henderson-Sellers and A. Slater. 1997: "Integrating Land Surface and Atmospheric Models" EOS, 78, 173-181

[28]  R.D. Cess, M.-H. Zhang, G.L. Potter, V. Alekseev, H.W. Barker, S. Bony, R.A. Colman, D.A. Dazlich, A.D. Del Genio, M. Deque, M.R. Dix, V. Dymnikov, M. Esch, L.D. Fowler, J.R. Fraser, V. Galin, W.L. Gates, J.J. Hack, W.J. Ingram, J.T. Kiehl, Y. Kim, H. Le Treut, X.-Z. Liang, B.J. McAvaney, V.P. Meleshko, J.-J. Morcrette, D.A. Randall, E. Roeckner, M.E. Schlesinger, P.V. Sporyshev, K.E. Taylor, B. Timbal, E.M. Volodin, W. Wang, W.-C. Wang, R.T. Wetherald. 1997: "Comparison of the seasonal change in cloud-radiative forcing from atmospheric general circulation models and satellite observations" J. Geophys. Res., 102, 16,593-16,603

[29]  E. Martin, B. Timbal and E. Brun. 1996: "Downscaling of general circulation models outputs: simulation of the snow climatology of the French Alps and sensitivity to climate change" Climate Dyn., 13, 45-56

[30]  R.D. Cess, M.H. Zhang, W.J. Ingram, G.L. Potter, V. Alekseev, H.W. Barker, E. Cohen-Solal, R.A. Colman, D.A. Dazlich, A.D. Del Genio, M.R. Dix, V. Dymnikov, M. Esch, L.D. Fowler, J.R. Fraser, V. Galin, W.L. Gates, J.J. Hack, J.T. Kiehl, H. Le Treut, K.K.-W. Lo, B.J. McAvaney, V.P. Meleshko, J.-J. Morcrette, D.A. Randall, E. Roeckner, J.-F. Royer, M.E. Schlesinger, P.V. Sporyshev, B. Timbal, E.M. Volodin, K.E. Taylor, W.Wang, and R.T. Wetherald. 1996: "Cloud feedback in atmospheric general circulation models: An update" J. Geophys. Res., 101, 12,791-12,794

[31]  B. Timbal, J.-F. Mahfouf, J.-F. Royer and D. Cariolle. 1995: "Sensitivity to prescribed changes in sea surface temperature and sea-ice in doubled carbon dioxide experiments" Climate Dyn., 12, 1-20

[32]  J.-F. Mahfouf, D. Cariolle, J.-F. Royer, J.-F. Geleyn and B. Timbal. 1994: "Response of the METEO-FRANCE Climate Model to Changes in CO2 and Sea-Surface-Temperature" Climate Dyn., 9, 345-362

 

On-line publication

[33] B. Timbal, 2009: “The continuing decline in South-East Australian rainfall – Update to may 2009”, CAWCR Res. Let., 2, 4-11

[34] B. Timbal and P. Hope, 2008: “Observed early winter Mean Seal Level Pressure changes above southern Australia: a comparison of existing datasets”, CAWCR res. Let., 1, 1-7

[35]  B. Timbal and B. Murphy. 2007: "Observed climate change in South-East of Australia and its relation to large-scale modes of variability". BMRC Res. Let. 6, 6-11

[36]  R.L. Wilby, S.P. Charles, E. Zorita, B. Timbal, P. Whetton and L.O. Mearns, 2004: "Guidelines for Use of Climate Scenarios Developed from Statistical Downscaling Methods". Published on-line, supporting material to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, detailed guidelines, 2, 27pp

Extended abstract

[37]  D.-L. Liu, J. Mo, H. Fairweather and B. Timbal: “A GIS tool to evaluate climate change impact: functionality and case study”, proceedings of the MODSIM09 conference, Cairns, Australia

[38]  N. Plummer, N. Tuteja, Q.J. Wang, E. Wang, D. Robertson, S. Zhou, A. Schepen, O. Alves, B. Timbal and K. Puri, 2009: “A Seasonal Water Availability Prediction Service: Opportunities and Challenges”, proceedings of the MODSIM09 conference, Cairns, Australia

[39]  B. Timbal and Z. Li. 2007: “A user friendly interface to provide point specific climate change projections”, 546-552, proceedings of the MODSIM07 conference,  Christchurch, New-Zealand

[40]  B. Timbal, J.-F. Mahfouf, J.-F. Royer and D. Cariolle. 1995: "Sensitivity of climate change in Europe to the Northern Atlantic warming" proceedings of the International conference on past, present and future climate, SILMU, 481-485

[41]  B. Timbal, J.-F. Mahfouf, J.-F. Royer and M. Déqué. 1994: "Sensitivity parameters of the METEO-FRANCE climate models: EMERAUDE and ARPEGE" in Climate Sensitivity to Radiative Perturbations: Physical Mechanisms and Their Validation, NATO/ASI Series, H. Le Treut (ed.), 34, 203-213

[42]  J.-F. Royer, F. Chauvin and B. Timbal. 1994: "Analysis of the monsoon response to radiative perturbations in GCM simulations" in Climate Sensitivity to Radiative Perturbations: Physical Mechanisms and Their Validation, NATO/ASI Series, H. Le Treut (ed.), 34, 281-291

 

Report

[43]   A. Hasson, G. Mills, K. Walsh and B. Timbal. 2008: “Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme fire weather in southeast Australia”, CAWCR research report, 7, pp 86

[44]  B. Timbal, Z. Li and E. Fernandez. 2008: “The Bureau of meteorology Statistical Downscaling Model Graphical User Interface: user manual and software documentation”, CAWCR research report, 4, pp 98

[45]  R. Kounkou, B. Timbal and G. Mills. 2007: "The impact of anthropogenic climate change on t the risk of cool-season tornado occurrences". BMRC Research Report, 129 , pp 79

[46]  A. Voldoire, B. Timbal and S. Power. 2002: "Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting". BMRC Research Report, 87, 62pp

[47]  J. Viviand, S. Lirola, B. Timbal, S. Power and R. Colman. 2000: "Impact of soil moisture on climate variability and predictability". BMRC Research Report, 81, 49pp

[48]  B. Timbal and B.J. McAvaney, 2000: "A downscaling procedure for Australia". BMRC Research Report, 78, 40pp

[49]  J.-F. Royer, F. Chauvin, B. Timbal, P. Araspin and D. Grimal, 1997: "A GCM study of the impact of greenhouse gas increase on the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones". CNRM, GMGEC note de centre, 56, 53pp

[50]  B. Timbal, J.-F. Mahfouf and J.F. Royer, 1996: "Comparisons between doubled CO2 time-slice and coupled experiments". CNRM, GMGEC note de centre, 52, 35pp

[51]  B. Timbal, J.-F. Mahfouf, J.-F. Royer and D. Cariolle, 1995: "Sensitivity to prescribe changes in seas surface temperature and sea-ice in double carbon dioxide experiments".  CNRM, GMGEC note de centre, 42, 40pp

[52]  B. Timbal and J.-F. Mahfouf, 1994: "Analyses d'expériences de sensibilité au doublement du CO2 avec le modèle Arpege, comparaison avec les résultats d'Emeraude". CNRM, GMGEC note de centre, 29, 70pp (in French)

[53]  B. Timbal, J.-F. Mahfouf, M. Déqué and J.F. Royer, 1993: "Expériences de sensibilité a des anomalies uniformes de température de la mer avec les modèles Emeraude et Arpege". CNRM, GMGEC note de centre, 25, 44pp (in French)

 

Other publications (not peer reviewed)

 

Extended abstract

[54]  B. Timbal, H. Hendon and O. Alves. 2006: "BMRC involvement in the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI)". In Climate change research in the Bureau of Meteorology , S.B. Power and K. Pearce (eds.), BMRC Research Report, 125, 74-76

[55]  B. Timbal. 2006: "Statistical Downscaling in BMRC". In Climate change research in the Bureau of Meteorology , S.B. Power and K. Pearce (eds.), BMRC Research Report, 125, 68-72

[56]  B. Timbal. 2006: "Statistical Downscaling - an important part of ACCESS". In "The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) - challenge and opportunities". BMRC Research Report, 123, 18th BMRC Modelling Workshop, pp 123-126

[57]  B. Timbal. 2005: "What has happened with the winter rainfall in southern Australia?". In "Hydrometeorological Applications of Weather and Climate Modelling". BMRC Research Report, 111, 17th BMRC Modelling Workshop, pp 21-24

[58]  B. Timbal, M. Wheeler, S. Chêne, L. Maitrepierre and A. Leroy. 2004: "Impact de la variabilité interannuelle et intra-saisonnière sur l‘activité cyclonique et la pluviométrie". Acte des Assises Française de la Recherche dans le Pacifique, Nouméa, New Caledonia, 6pp (in French)

[59]  B. Timbal and B.J. McAvaney. 2002: "Using downscaling to assess extreme weathers in changed climatic conditions". In BMRC Research Report, 90, "Modelling and predicting extreme events" 14th BMRC Modelling Workshop, pp 133-136

 

On-line publication

[60]  B. Timbal, 1997: " Technical note: PILPS - Phase 4 (b):  Land Surface Model Coupling to  LAPS". PILPS technical note, available online

 

Technical publication

[61]  B. Timbal, K. Whan and M. Raupach, 2009: “Assessment of climate changes over a range of timescales on evapotranspiration, runoff and drainage across SEA, through both physical and ecological processes”, South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI), final report for project 1.3.1P, pp

[62]  B. Timbal and E. Fernandez, 2009: “Improved detection of the recent rainfall decline including its seasonality and spatial characteristics”, South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI), final report for project 1.2.1P, pp

[63]  B. Timbal and I. Smith, 2009: “Assessing the relationship between the Hadley Circulation and position and intensity of the sub-tropical ridge in the Australian region”, South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI), final report for project 1.1.1P, pp

[64]  I. Smith, M. Hopkins, B. Timbal, F. Chiew and H. Hendon, 2009: “South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative: 2008 annual report”. Prepared by the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology for the South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI), 75pp

[65]  B. Timbal and E. Fernandez, 2009: “Application of the Bureau of Meteorology downscaling technique to coupled climate model simulation of the 20th century and implications of the attribution of observed climate change”, South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI), final report for project 1.5.1, 25 pp

[66]  B. Timbal and E. Fernandez, 2009: “Application of the Bureau of Meteorology downscaling technique to reanalyses: implications for the attribution of observed climate change”, South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI), final report for project 1.4.1, 20 pp

[67]  F. Chiew, H Cleugh, P. Holper, M. Hopkins, G. Macaulay, I smith and B. Timbal, 2008: “South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative: 2007 annual report”. Prepared by the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology for the  South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI), 72pp

[68]  B. Timbal, B. Murphy, E. Fernandez and Z. Li. 2008: “Development of the analogue downscaling technique for rainfall, temperature, surface humidity and pan evaporation”. South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI), final report for project 1.3.1, 17 pp

[69]  B. Timbal, B. Murphy, K. Braganza, H. Hendon, M. Wheeler and C. Rakich. 2007: “Compare documented climate changes with those attributable to specific causes”. South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI), final report for project 1.1.2, 19 pp  

[70]  S. Charles, R. Barratt, R. Beecham, A. Close, S. Crimp, S. Drowley, D. Kandel, U. Manandhar and B. Timbal, 2007: “Station networks and data for statistical downscaling”. South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI), final report for project 1.3.2, 8 pp

[71]  B. Timbal and B. Murphy. 2007: “Document changes in south-eastern Australian rainfall, temperature, surface humidity and pan evaporation”. South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI), final report for project 1.1.1, 19 pp

[72]  P. Holper, B. Bates, H. Hendon, B. Timbal, F. Chiew and I. Smith. 2007: “South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative: 2006 annual milestone report”. Prepared by the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology for the  South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI), 59pp

[73]  H. Zhang, O. Alves, D. Hess, H. Richter, B. Timbal,  B. McAvaney, G. Mills, K. Puri, G. Roff and G. Weymouth. 2003: "BMRC Land-Surface Modelling and Studies: Current Status and Future Plans". BMRC strategy paper, 35 pp

[74]  B. Timbal, G. Mills and F. Woodcock. 2003: "Downscaling in BMRC". BMRC strategy paper, 29pp

[75]  B. Timbal, 1994: "Analyses d'expérience de modifications climatiques liées a l'augmentation des gaz a effet de serre. Sensibilité de la réponse a la formulation du modèle et aux forçages utilises". Institut national Polytechnique de Toulouse, France. PhD Thesis (in French)

[76]  B. Timbal and J.-F. Mahfouf, 1992: "Analyses d'une expérience de sensibilité au doublement du CO2 avec le modèle Emeraude". CNRM, GMGEC note de centre, 15, 47pp (in French)

[77]  B. Timbal, 1992: "Analyses d'une expérience de sensibilité au doublement du gaz carbonique simulée par un modèle climatique". DEA thesis, INPT, 41pp (in French)

[78]  B. Timbal, 1992: "Analyses d'une expérience de sensibilité au doublement du gaz carbonique simulée par un modèle climatique". Final year thesis, ENSEEIHT, INPT, 56pp (in French)

[79]  B. Timbal, 1991: "Rapport de stage industriel au centre d'essai de Mack Truck, inc". Second year training period report, ENSEEIHT, INPT, 50pp (in French)

 

Media release and relevant press article

[80] May 2008, SEACI program: “Global warming linked to rainfall decline in south east Australia”. BoM and CSIRO press release

[81] June 2007, SEACI program: “The Drying of Australia’s South East”. CSIRO press release

[82] April 2006, Australian Farm Journal: " Shorter growing season predicted for WA wheat belt"

[83] November 2005, Canberra Times, Canberra: "Canberra may be singin' in the rain, but elsewhere it'll be a different tune", by T. Glumac

[84] 2005, Greenhouse conference, Melbourne, Australia: Less winter rain in southern Australia. Bureau of Meteorology press release

[85] 2004, 16th Australian New-Zealand Climate Forum, Lorne, Australia: Will dry times in south-east Australia continue?. Bureau of Meteorology press release